Daniel Kahneman

MVE cancelled

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No, not Most Valuable Email.

The MVE that’s been cancelled is the Most Vivian Event, the big promotion I announced yesterday.

I had hoped to use this event to pull every remaining non-buyer on my list and get him to buy Most Valuable Email, will-he, nill-he.

My plan was to use I know about promos inside the Most Vivian Event — structure, copy, and most importantly offer:

An “Italian lottery,” giving new buyers a good chance to get MVE free…

A stack of free bonuses that I’ve sold for good money before, totaling the price of MVE and more, so even if somebody didn’t win the “Italian lottery,” they would still feel like they’re getting a steal…

An entirely new bonuses as well, which would reveal all the thinking that went into this promo — basically a little promo course built around a specific case study, to make this MVE offer so valuable that if you ever send any kind of emails, the investment would pay for itself with this one new bonus alone.

I had grand plans to make this event fun, epic, and undoubtedly immensely successful. Except…

It’s all been cancelled.

Reason why:

Each time I got near to settling on the final offer for the Most Vivian Event, I kept bouncing into one problem:

“What do I do with previous buyers?”

I have a long-standing policy to reward early buyers for buying for me. That means I grandfather previous buyers into any upgrades, new runs of a course, or bonuses I end up offering in the future. It also means I don’t feature discounts.

Yesterday, when I had the initial idea for this new promo, I shrugged this question off.

I told myself I’d figure out some way to incentivize new buyers… to reward previous buyers… and to have this promo make business sense for me personally.

But no matter how I structured this offer, there was always one end of the triangle — new buyers, old buyers, me — that was left high and dry.

I realized it’s not a matter of what bonuses or incentives I end up offering. It’s simply a consequence of my “reward previous buyers” policy, and the fact that I have hundreds of previous buyers of MVE.

That’s why I’ve actually never run a bonus- or discount-based promo for any of my offers, outside of a launch. I just never realized it until yesterday.

You might say I’m being stubborn to stick to this policy. And that’s exactly right. Because I want people to believe a few simple certainties when they think of me.

One of those simple certainties is that I won’t screw over previous buyers. I don’t ever want my buyers to think, even in passing, “Huh, maybe I should have waited to buy this, this new deal is better than what I got.”

Yesterday, I wrote that I had clearly been falling short by continuing to sell MVE on its merits alone.

Some people who could benefit from MVE — like Vivian, who wanted something for “coming up with interesting ideas and presenting it in a concise and compelling way” — never even considered buying.

Frankly, that falling short will most likely continue.

But if you have been on the fence about MVE for a while, I do have a special offer for you today. It’s nothing like the spectacle I was planning on. But you can decide whether it’s enough to get you to take me up on Most Valuable Email today.

I’m calling this offer the “Shangri La” MVE offer. And that’s because like Shangri La, the two parts of this offer only appear once every fifty years. Specifically:

1. I normally don’t offer a payment plan for Most Valuable Email. I did offer a payment plan for MVE once, as a joke, for one day only. Well, like Shangri La, the payment plan is back, and not as a joke.

You can get MVE for $99 today and then two more monthly payments of $99. This payment plan is there to make it psychologically easier to get started — in my experience, people take up payment plans not because they cannot afford to pay in full, but simply because it feels like a smaller commitment.

2. I am also offering a bonus, which I’m calling Shangri La Disappearing Secrets.

Over the past years, I have periodically sent out emails where I teased a secret, which I then turned into a disappearing, one-day bonuses for people who took me up on an offer before the deadline.

Inside this Shangri La Disappearing Secrets bonus, I have collected 12 emails that teased 12 secrets — and I have revealed the secrets themselves. These include:

* An email deliverability tip that is so valuable I decided not to share it publicly, but only with buyers of MVE. This tip is something that multiple people have told me I should turn into a standalone course or training — which I most probably will do one day.

* Stage Surprise Success. Step-by-step instructions for creating effective surprise in any kind of performance, whether thieving, magicking, comedy, drama, or simply writing for impact and influence. And no, it’s not just shocking people with something they weren’t expecting. In fact, it’s kind of the opposite of that.

* A daring idea to grow your list and build up your authority at the same time. I have not yet had the guts to put it into practice, even though I have lots of reasons to believe it would work great to build my own authority, and get me more high-quality leads than I’m getting now.

* A persuasion strategy used by con men, pick up artists, salesmen, even by legendary copywriters. I ran a little contest in an email to see if anybody could identify this strategy based on a scene from the movie The Sting. Out of 40+ people who tried to identify the strategy, only 2 got it right.

* An incredible free resource, filled with insightful and proven marketing and positioning advice. This resource comes from a man I’ve only written about once in this newsletter, but who has influenced my thinking about marketing and human psychology more deeply than I may let on — maybe more deeply than anybody else over the past few years.

* Magic Box calls-to-action. Use these if you don’t have a product or a service to sell yet, or if you only have a few bum offers, which your list has stopped responding to every day. Result of a “magic box” CTA when used by one of my coaching clients: the first hand-raiser ever for an under-construction $4k offer.

* A new way to apply the Most Valuable email trick, one I wasn’t comfortable doing until recently. Now that I’ve started using it, it’s gotten people paying more attention… leaning in more… even rereading my emails 3x… and reaching out to reopen dropped business conversations.

* Steven Pressfield (the author of the War of Art and the Legend of Bagger Vance) used to write scripts for porn movies. He once shared two porn storytelling rules. I’ll tell you what they are, and how smart marketers, maybe even me on occasion, use one of these rules in their own sales copy and marketing content.

* A list of 14 criteria of truthful stories. I’m not saying to get devious with this — but you could use these criteria to jelly up a made-up story and make it sound absolutely true. More respectably, you can use these criteria to take your true but fluffy story and make it sound 100% gripping and real.

* Why I drafted US patent application 16/573921 to get the U.S. Government to recognize my Most Valuable Email trick as novel, non-obvious, and having concrete, practical applications.

* Two methods for presenting a persuasive argument, as spelled out by Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. I illustrate these two methods with a little public debate that Daniel Throssell and I engaged in via our respective email newsletters. Daniel and I each adopted opposing methods, just as described by Kahneman.

* An infotainment secret I stole from Ben Settle. As far as I know, Ben doesn’t teach this secret in his books or newsletters — I found it by tracking Ben’s emails over a 14-day period and spotting Ben using it in 8 of those 14 emails. And no, I’m not talking about teasing, or telling a story, or stirring up conflict. This is something more fundamental, and more broadly useful, even beyond daily emails.

So there you go. My Shangri La MVE offer:

A payment plan for Most Valuable Email that only appears twice in a century… and 12 bonus persuasion secrets.

This offer is good until tomorrow, Friday Oct 11, at 12 midnight PST.

If you’re at all interested, the time to act is now. That’s because of that simple certainty I wrote above — there won’t ever be a better time.

I won’t be running big promo events for Most Valuable Email, because it doesn’t fit my policy of treating previous customers with respect.

On the other hand, if you get MVE now, you will also be eligible for any future disappearing bonuses I might offer with it, or any other special offer or real I will make to new buyers also.

If you’d like to take me up on this Shangri La offer, before it disappears:

https://bejakovic.com/mve/

P.S. And yes, if you have already bought MVE, you also get the Shangri La Disappearing Secrets. No need to write me for it. I’ll add it straight inside the MVE course area, right under the MVE Swipes document.

Daniel Throssell, Daniel Kahneman, and a robot lawyer walk into a bar…

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A few minutes ago, I got my coffee ready, I set my timer, and I got down to writing this email. As a first step, I checked some news headlines and bingo — I saw it:

“AI-powered ‘robot’ lawyer will be first of its kind to represent defendant in court”

Maybe you’ve heard the news already. A startup called DoNotPay is helping people fight speeding tickets.

Before, DoNotPay used AI to write a letter that you could mail in to contest your speeding ticket. But now, DoNotPay will help one lucky defendant in court.

The DoNotPay app will run on the defendant’s phone. It will listen in to the court proceedings. And it will tell the defendant what to say to get out of his speeding ticket in court.

“This courtroom stuff is more advocacy,” said Joshua Browder, the CEO of DoNotPay. “It’s more to encourage the system to change.” Browder says he wants to give access to law to people who can’t afford it.

As you might guess, this noble mission isn’t very popular with lawyers themselves.

When Browder tweeted about his new courtroom “robot”, lawyers jumped on him, and threatened he would go to jail if he followed through with this plan.

And verily, a courtroom robot is not legal in most places. In most places, all parties have to agree to be recorded. But I doubt good will and keeping Browder out of jail is why lawyers jumped all over Browder’s tweet, telling him to stop this project immediately.

Lawyers still have a bit of time.

Right now, courtroom AI robots just handle speeding tickets. And Browder admits even that took a lot of work.

His company had to retrain generic AI for this specialized task. “AI is a high school student,” Browder said, “and we’re sending it to law school.”

Law school… and then what? because Being a good lawyer is not just about knowing the letter of the law.

Specifically, I have in mind a passage I read in Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow.

Kahneman says there are two fundamental ways lawyers argue.

These two ways are actually illustrated perfectly in the little debate Daniel Throssell and I had last week, in emails talking about newsletters and who wants ’em.

So I will make you an offer right now, which you are free to refuse, in case you’d rather go read Thinking Fast and Slow yourself.

My offer is a disappearing bonus.

It’s good until 8pm CET/2pm EST/11am PSST tomorrow, Thursday, Jan 12 2023.

If you’ve already bought my Most Valuable Email course, and would like me to spell out Kahneman’s two lawyer strategies, write me before the deadline and ask.

​​I will write back to you, both with Kahneman’s passage, and the specifics of how Daniel and I each took one of the two approaches.

And if you haven’t bought my Most Valuable Email course, then my offer is the same, except you have to also buy the course before the deadline.

Buy just to get the bonus?
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If you find yourself desirous of the disappearing bonus, but reluctant to buy a course just to get that bonus, then I will argue that desire itself is a reason to get MVE.

​​Because this desire is something you too can create in others. It’s something I talk about in the course itself, specifically inside the 12 Rules of Most Valuable Emails, specifically Rule #10.

For more info on this course, or to get it before the deadline:

https://bejakovic.com/mve/

Nobel Prize-winner shows just how right I, John Bejakovic, was

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Trust me for a moment or two while I tell you about the following interesting people:

On October 3, 1918, a man named Grover Bougher sent a letter to his brother George, a Private in the American Expeditionary Force.

Two days later, Grover was killed in a train wreck.

Grover’s letter was returned unopened the following April, with a note from the Command P.O. that George had also been killed, fighting the war in France.

Neither brother ever learned of the other’s death.

But life goes on. Eventually, Grover’s widow, Lulu Belle Lomax, met and married a man named Vernon Smith.

Smith loved children, including Lulu’s two daughters by Grover Bougher. And while Lulu had often said she would never have any more children, Vernon’s love for her two daughters changed her mind.

​​The result was Vernon Lomax Smith, born on January 1, 1927.

Fast forward to 2002:

Vernon Lomax Smith is awarded the Nobel Prize in economics. Well, actually he shares the prize with Daniel Kahneman. Like Kahneman, Smith did work in behavioral and experimental economics, so the Nobel committee thought it okay to split the prize among the two of them.

Fast forward even more, to 2022:

Vernon Smith, now aged 95, has taken part in an interesting experiment. Except, he is not the investigator. He is part of the experiment itself. The experiment runs as follows.

Smith and a lesser-known coauthor (one without a Nobel Prize) submit a paper for publication.

Will the paper be accepted for publication? How will Smith’s name influence those odds?

Result:

If Smith’s Nobel Prize-winning name is revealed to peer reviewers, they are more likely to accept the paper for publication.

If Smith’s name is hidden to peer reviewers, the reviewers are less likely to the accept for publication.

Common sense, right?

Except, what was not common sense, what was not obvious, and what was in fact shocking to the scientists who conducted this experiment, was the size of the effect of revealing Vernon Smith’s name to peer reviewers.

If Smith’s name was revealed to peer reviewers, they were 6x more likely to accept the paper than otherwise.

Same paper. Same quality of ideas inside. 6x difference in response.

6x!

Yesterday, I, John Bejakovic, wrote an email advising you to give your prospects mental shortcuts to make their decision-making easier.

One of the most valuable of such shortcuts is, as I have long trumpeted, to sell people, and not ideas.

Ideas are vague, hard to grasp, and hard to judge.

People, on the other hand, sell much better. How much better?

Well, thanks to Vernon Smith, we now have the answer:

​​6x better.

Like I said, this is something I have known for a long time. But I still need to remind myself of it often.

For example, I have lately been promoting my Most Valuable Email training.

I’ve given you all sorts of idea-y reasons why you might want to buy this training and learn the “Most Valuable Email trick” inside.

What I haven’t done yet is tell you maybe the most important reason.

While I have used this MVE trick heavily – more heavily than anyone I know of — I did not invent it.

In fact, I have seen some very smart and successful marketers, including Gary Bencivenga, Parris Lampropoulos, and Mark Ford reach for this trick it in non-email content.

It’s much rarer to see this trick being used in emails — outside my own — though I have spotted Daniel Throssell using this trick on occasion.

So many names.

So many people.

So many reasons to buy my Most Valuable Email training.

In case you are interested:

https://bejakovic.com/mve/

Introducing: New Gimme Hope Co’rona strain

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Perhaps you’ve read the news. From a Reuters article earlier today:

“Australia and several other countries joined nations imposing restrictions on travel from southern Africa on Saturday after the discovery of the new Charlize Coron variant sparked global concern and triggered a market sell-off.”

Ok, that’s not really what the news said. The new corona strain isn’t called Charlize Coron. It should have been called that. But instead, it got yet another boring Greek letter name, omicron.

A couple days ago, Ben Settle wrote this:

Yes, Google is one the best content title swipe files on the internet IMO.

My recommendation:

Look at hundreds of craft beer names.

Note the ones that pop out at you.

Then ask yourself:

“How can I apply this uniquely and creatively to my next piece of content?”

Since the Greek letter naming system sucks, I decided to try Ben’s advice out. I wanted to see if I couldn’t come up with a craft beer name for the new corona variant, something better than “omicron.” Maybe you can tell me if I succeeded with any of the options below.

A bit of googling revealed that many craft beer names are puns on celebrity names, stock phrases, or pop culture references tied in to the history behind the brewery.

Since this new variant was found in South Africa and Botswana, I hit upon the following ideas for the new corona beer:

* Covid Bustard (after Botswana’s national bird, the kori bustard)

* Antigen To Zebra (“all the animals you can find in South Africa, from aardvark to zebra”)

* Gimme Hope Co’rona (after the Eddie Grant hit Gimme Hope Jo’anna — Jo’anna is Johannesburg)

A second article I read said scientists are worried because this new strain has “a very unusual constellation of mutations.”

Unusual mutations? That makes my brain go in one direction only. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. And since craft beers often feature nonsensical, goofy, high-energy names, this could be another possible name for the new brew:

* Cowidbunga!

Finally, the scientist who isolated this new variant said the “full significance of the variant is uncertain.” This reminded me of something Daniel Kahneman wrote about uncertainty and fear:

“The fear of an electric shock is uncorrelated with the probability of receiving the shock. The mere possibility triggers the full blown response.”

This Kahneman idea ties in well to my personal beliefs about corona. And if I had anything to do with naming the new strain, I might just give a nod to Kahneman and call it “Covid, fast and slow.”

But you know what? My point is not really anything to do with corona.

It’s not even anything to do with naming your products or content either.

Maybe you can see the point I’m trying to make. If not, then check out my email tomorrow, where I will almost certainly reveal Die Antwoord (another possible craft corona name?).

Making missed opportunities hurt

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I’m at the seaside for a few days. Last night, after the fortieth glass of aperol, the decision was made to go for an “early-morning swim” today.

Today however, thanks to that same aperol, morning came later than usual. And then there was breakfast and some packing and a bit of standing around on the balcony. The early-morning swim plans turned into mid-day swim plans.

And then it started to rain. There would be no swimming after all.

Typical. At least in my life. Because in my experience, you can screw up in two ways:

You can take action and do something dumb… or you can not take action and miss an opportunity.

I’ve noticed in my own life that I’m much more likely to not take action, just like this morning, than to get overeager and get into trouble.

And I guess I am not the only one.

I read in Daniel Kahmenan’s Thinking Fast and Slow that we humans have a reliable bias in this direction.

It’s not just laziness.

But somewhere deep down in our monkey and lizard brains, we believe we will regret a mistake much more if we actively did something to bring it about… rather than if we just sat by, staring out the window, watching the clouds gather.

If Kahneman is right — and why wouldn’t he be, the guy’s got a Nobel Prize after all — then it’s another notch in favor of writing over-the-top, emotionally supercharged, manipulative sales copy.

Because sales copy, in spite of what many people will tell you, is not just like an ordinary conversation. You can’t just present a sober, reasoned argument and have people jumping out of bed.

Instead, you’ve got to create such desperation and fury in your prospect’s mind not only to overcome his natural laziness… but to overcome his fear of trudging all the way down to the beach, and then getting drenched in ice-cold rain. That’s gonna take some hyperbole. It’s gonna take some drama.

Finally, here’s a vision I want to paint in your mind:

I have an email newsletter. Each day I write a short email about copywriting and marketing lessons I’m learning.

If you like, you can sign up for the newsletter here. Or you can just wait. The opportunity will still be there tomorrow. And the day after. And the day after that.

It takes two to tango with a bear

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After about 5 months of very slow reading, I recently managed to finish Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow.

Honestly, I think this book will become a Bible of sorts for me.

It crystalizes so many vague ideas I’ve had and also gives me new and valuable perspectives.

Such as Kahneman’s concept of “the two selves.” Let me illustrate this with something else that’s meaningful to me, and that’s Werner Herzog’s movie Grizzly Man.

This is a documentary about a guy who traveled up to Alaska summer after summer.

He camped out in the wilderness, living in a tent, and recording hundreds of hours of video of himself, of the tall grasslands, of the beautiful rivers, and of the troupe of grizzly bears that hung out all around him.

The grizzlies and the video guy eventually developed a mutual respect for each other.

He got closer and closer to them, and more and more in touch with nature.

It was becoming quite transcendent. Until one lean summer night, when a hungry grizzly bear came into the guy’s tent and, during a horrific and terrifying few minutes, ripped him apart and ate him.

Shocking story.

And a good illustration of Kahneman’s two selves.

One self is the “experiencing self.”

It’s how we feel, moment by moment. The grizzly man’s experiencing self got many thousands of moments’ worth of peace, beauty, excitement, and self-discovery.

The other self is the remembering self.

​It’s how we evaluate or judge our experience in hindsight, or from a removed perspective.

​​The grizzly man’s remembering self, if it could put the pieces back together, would probably remember the one emotional high point of his Alaska summers — maybe the time he managed to get close to a mamma bear and her cubs — and the tragic end — the late-night bear mauling.

So why am I telling you this?

Well, I personally find I consult my remembering self too much, both when evaluating how I felt, and in making big decision about the future.

There’s no getting around the remembering self — it’s an essential part of all of us.

But it’s only one half of the tango.

The experiencing self should have something to say too.

And as I hope the grizzly man story above illustrates, the two selves can often come to very different conclusions.

Anyways, maybe this philosophical rambling will be useful to you in some way.

Now it’s back to the mundane world of direct response money-making. And if you have a business and you need some help with that, both your remembering and experiencing selves might appreciate the following experience:

https://bejakovic.com/advertorials/

How to stop worrying and start making better decisions

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In the summer of 2004, I was snorkeling at the Dry Tortugas off the Florida Keys.

The sand at the Dry Tortugas is white.

The water is warm, blue, and perfectly clear. It’s also shallow, so there are many coral reefs, full of colorful tropical fish.

So there I was, mask clamped to my face, salty snorkel in my mouth, swimming along in the sun and having a nice time.

Every so often, I’d see a school of hand-sized green fish. Cute.

Then I saw a single striped blue fish, the size of a football, with yellow markings near its fins. Interesting.

And then for a while, I saw nothing of note.

So I swam further away from the shore and into the ocean. All around was the blue-green water. Below me, there was  white sand which stretched out as far as I could see.

And then a cold wave of fear washed over me.

My heart jumped into my throat. My body froze.

Because right in front, maybe about 10 feet away, was a giant, silver, slithering sea monster.

Its head looked like a boxing glove.

The scales on its back glittered in the sun.

And it wasn’t alone. Behind it, there was another monster. And another. And another. Dozens of them.

I had unwittingly snorkeled my way into a large school of tarpon, one of the biggest game fish you can catch in Florida. They grow up to 8 feet long — about 2 meters. I’m not sure how large the tarpon that I saw were, but out there in the water, each of them looked the size of a Volkswagen Beetle.

Fortunately, the school of tarpon didn’t care about me. They just leisurely continued on their route, off into the ocean, past where I could see them.

Once they were gone, I slowly recovered control over my arms and legs, turned around, and swam back to shore.

Now, there’s a little lesson in this story about how to stop worrying and start making better decisions. Here’s what I mean:

Most humans, me included, react much more strongly to negative events than to positive ones.

The thing is, we often willingly expose ourselves to feedback, which can be positive as well as negative.

Imagine checking how your Bitcoin investment is doing in the last hour… or how many visitors your website had yesterday.

If the outcome is positive — Bitcoin is up 2%, or you had the usual number of website visitors — it’s like snorkeling and seeing those little green and blue fish. Cute. Interesting.

But if the outcome is negative, the feeling can be much stronger. It’s like being punched in the gut by a giant, boxing-glove-headed tarpon.

But hold on, you might say. Shouldn’t you always know how things stand — and if you’re swimming into dangerous waters — so you can take corrective action if needed?

Maybe. But maybe checking too often will just cause you stress. And if you get a few negative results in a row, it might also cause you to make a bad decision — to turn around, swim to shore, and get out of the water. And this might be a tragedy.

Here’s a formal way to illustrate why, which I got from Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow:

Let’s say I offer you a bet. 50% chance you win $200. 50% chance you lose $100.

Many people won’t take this bet. The possible loss of $100 (with a 50% chance) seems too big compared to the possible winnings of $200. The fear of the tarpon is too strong.

But what if the same bet happens 100 times in a row?

In that case, it would almost certainly make sense to take this “aggregate” bet. Your expected winnings would be $5,000 — and your chance of losing any money would be just 1 in 2,300.

And yet, if you don’t look at the aggregate view — but you only consider each 50%-50% bet in isolation — chances are you will never get this large, almost guaranteed outcome. ​​

In other words, it can pay to take the long view. And to have a system. And to stop worrying about short-term results.

Granted, of course, that you’re not exposing yourself to catastrophe in the form of a hammerhead shark or a loss of money that will land you in jail or at the bottom of the sea.

Anyways, that’s my motivational sermon for today.

One last thing: If you need a system and a long-term view to help with marketing your business, then daily emails might be the answer. And if you want some proven advice on how to write such emails, you might like the following:

https://bejakovic.com/profitable-health-emails/

How to outguess “America’s greatest copywriter” for $100

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During his famous farewell seminar in 2006, Gary Bencivenga ran a “Pick The Winner” contest.

He’d show two different headlines or magalog covers and ask the audience to choose which one did better in a direct test. (Example: “HE PROVED IT to millions on PBS television…” vs. “Deadly artery plaque dissolved!”)

The interesting thing was that Gary himself admitted he wasn’t good at picking among these competing headlines.

Let me repeat this:

Gary Bencivenga, who has been called “America’s greatest copywriter,” admitted he can’t pick a winning headline from two solid but very different appeals.

​​So what hope do you have?

And if you can’t even hope to pick out a winning headline, how can you write a good ad?

After all, the headline often determines whether the rest of your ad will get a reading at all.

Before I answer this, let me switch gears for a second. And let me tell you about an interesting bit of research I came across in psychologist Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow.

Kahneman and another psychologist, Gary Klein, had very different attitudes about expert intuitions (such as the ability of a top copywriter to pick a winning headline).

Gary Klein was all for expert intuition.

He studied decision making among firefighters, and he had many reports of how firefighters would make gut calls that turned out to be the right call.

Kahneman, on the other hand, didn’t believe much in the power of expert intuition.

That’s because he spent his time looking at decision making in fields such as finance, where he found that expert intuition was often negatively correlated to the actual outcome. (In other words, once you hear what an expert stock broker advises, you should do the exact opposite.)

So Kahneman and Klein decided to collaborate and answer the following:

When can you trust experts? And how can you develop expert intuition that you can rely on?

It turns out there are two conditions.

First, the domain needs to be predictable enough. Emergency room cases are predictable — but the stock market is not.

Second, you need an opportunity to get feedback, and preferably a lot of feedback, relatively quickly.

So let’s get back to writing copy.

Looking at the two criteria above, you can see why even a top copywriter like Gary B. might not have great intuition when it comes to picking headline winners.

Even if you think an individual market (say, the market for weight loss advice in 2019) is more or less predictable…

It’s hard to get enough feedback on what the market would respond to if all you’ve got is one direct mailing every six months, like Gary used to have.

Fortunately, that’s not the situation we’re in any longer.

With $100, you can promote an offer on a PPC network like Google display, and perform dozens of different (and statistically valid) copy tests.

This way, you can get almost immediate feedback.

You can learn which appeals work.

Plus you will start to develop a world-class copy intuition, which will soon outstrip even great copy masters from earlier generations.

Which goes back to something I read from another top copywriter, Dan Ferrari:

“Winning at direct response is mostly a matter of taking as many swings as possible. The C-level marketers that test 50 promos per year will beat the A-list marketers that test 5. Over longer periods of time, as variability compounds, this will become even more pronounced.”

Anyways, maybe this is valuable if you’re looking to write good copy.

And if you want to see some “Pick The Winner” contests I’ve run with several email lists I manage, you might like the following:

https://bejakovic.com/profitable-health-emails/

5 out of 6 copywriting tricks are worthless

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In 2009, back when Twitter was blowing up, a friend of mine had an idea for a website.

It was called 5 Out Of 6, and it was a kind of “Hot or Not” for ironic fake statistics, all starting with “5 out of 6…” Here are a few examples:

“5 out of 6 bananas aren’t slippery”

“5 out of 6 Elvis songs contain the word ‘well'”

“5 out of 6 U-turns are illegal”

People could vote on which fake statistics they found funny, and they could submit their own fake statistics into the mix.

The plan was to make this website go viral, then take the best fake statistics, put them into a coffee table book, and get Oprah to endorse it. Millions of dollars would follow easily.

Alas. It did not work out.

But there was sound psychology behind the idea.

It turns out that people understand statements such as “5 out of 6 bananas” much better than “83% of bananas.”

I found out about this from Nobel-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman. Here’s the relevant passage from his book, Thinking, Fast and Slow:

“Why is the question ‘How many of the 100 participants…’ so much easier than ‘What percentage…’? […] The solution to the puzzle appears to be that a question phrased as ‘How many?’ makes you think of individuals, but the same question phrased as ‘What percentage?’ does not.”

In short, this is just one of those quirks of the human brain. Our brains like stories, individual people, and human-scale ideas. We don’t do well with statistics, large numbers, or abstractions.

That’s something to remember the next time you have to present numbers in a sales message.

The thing is, in 5 out of 6 pieces of sales copy, it won’t matter whether you use “how many” or “what percentage.”

It won’t matter if you use “but” instead of “and.”

And it won’t matter whether you call your offer “swoon-worthy” or “dazzling.”

That’s because in 5 out of 6 cases, what you say matters much more than how you say it.

I’ll talk more about this tomorrow. For now, if you want some swoon-worthy copy for your business, then act now, don’t risk delaying, and take me up on this free offer:

https://bejakovic.com/profitable-health-emails/

How to handle an outrageous offer by shouting obscenities

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Imagine you’re a big-shot Hollywood producer.

You’ve got a film being made in the jungles of Myanmar, starring one of your biggest assets — action star Tugg Speedman. Then suddenly, you get a call:

Tugg has been kidnapped. His kidnappers, the heroin-producing Flaming Dragon gang — are demanding $50,000,000 in ransom.

So how do you respond?

Now you might recognize this plot from the movie Tropic Thunder. The big-shot Hollywood producer is called Les Grossman, and he’s played by Tom Cruise — in one of his best roles.

I bring this scene up to get you to imagine how you would personally handle an outrageous offer that starts off with a gargantuan sum like $50 million.

While you think about that, here’s what you should NOT do — at least according to Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman:

You shouldn’t respond with an equally outrageous low offer.

The reason for this is the concept of anchoring.

That first ridiculous number ($50 million in the Tropic Thunder case) has already influenced your psychology on a subconscious level.

Even if you counter with a ridiculously low offer — “We will give you $1,000 and not a penny more!” — chances are you will wind up paying way more than you would otherwise. That’s because the pull of the anchor is so strong, whether you’re consciously aware of it or not.

So what you can you do to rid yourself of the effect of the outrageous anchor?

Well, Kahneman thinks you should make a scene — scream and shout to make it clear to both yourself and the other person that any negotiation with this starting point is unacceptable.

And that’s exactly what master negotiator Les Grossman does in Tropic Thunder. After listening to the demands of Flaming Dragon, he takes a breath and calmly responds:

“Okay Flaming Dragon, fuckface. First, take a big step back… and literally fuck your own face! I don’t know what kind of pan-Pacific bullshit power play you’re trying to pull here, but Asia, Jack, is my territory. So whatever you’re thinking, you’d better think again! Otherwise I’m gonna have to head down there and I will rain down an ungodly fucking firestorm upon you! You’re gonna have to call the fucking United Nations and get a fucking binding resolution to keep me from fucking destroying you. I am talking scorched-earth, motherfucker! I will massacre you! I will fuck you up!”

And that’s how to inoculate yourself against ridiculous anchors.

Of course, not everybody knows this.

And if you’re selling in many markets, it makes sense to use anchors in your own marketing to justify your prices or to increase sales.

But enough obscenities for today.

In case you need help with sales emails, you might like my upcoming book. It contains bits of wisdom I’ve gained by writing for some very successful health clients. If you’d like to find out more or sign up for a free copy when it comes out, here’s where to go:

https://bejakovic.com/profitable-health-emails/