I once took a class on “health economics,” which is just what it sounds like.
One thing that’s stuck with me from those lectures is how back in the 1980s, the best and brightest political scientists in the West had no clue that the Soviet Union was about to collapse.
The only guy who was confidently predicting the imminent collapse of the Soviet Union was some low-profile economist who was looking at the rates of alcoholism and alcohol-related deaths in the USSR.
I don’t remember the exact numbers, but they were sky-high. A major part of the Soviet working-age population was either chronically drunk, sick from drinking, or dying from drinking.
It couldn’t go on for long like this, that economist predicted. And sure enough, it didn’t.
I thought of this a couple days ago while forcing myself to read an article about the U.S. Army’s recruiting shortfalls.
The U.S. Army’s recruiting woes are not a topic that I am personally interested in, but I’m glad I read the article. Among many other interesting things, it taught me the following:
“According to a Pentagon study, more than three-quarters of Americans between the ages of seventeen and twenty-four are ineligible, because they are over-weight, unable to pass the aptitude test, afflicted by physical or mental-health issues, or disqualified by such factors as a criminal record.”
I wanted to get a baseline.
A bit of perplexitying told me that during World War II, “nearly half” of men were deemed ineligible to serve in the army… during the Vietnam war, that had risen to “more than half” (though many eligible men were exempted for being in college)… by 2017, the number of ineligible men and women, ages 17 to 24, had reached 71%. In the most recent study, in 2022, that number had gone up to 77%.
In other words, in the span of about 50 years, the share of the “ineligible” has gone up by more than 50%… and the share of U.S. citizens, in the prime of life, who are not significantly compromised by health, mental, or behavioral issues, is now barely 1 in 5.
I don’t know what the future of the U.S. is. But the trend certainly isn’t good. It can’t go on for long like this.
Now that I’ve dug a six-foot-deep hole for myself so far in this email, let’s see if I can clamber out.
One idea I’ve personally found very inspiring over the years comes from Dan Kennedy.
I only know this idea as it was retold by Ben Settle in one of Ben’s emails. In fact, it was this email that got me to sign up to Ben’s paid newsletter.
The idea is the “myth of security.” Because, says Dan, there is no such thing as security. Not really, not if you look close.
There’s no security in the money or investments you already have in the bank… in the job that you have now… in the business that you might own… in the current method you have of getting customers or clients… even in your personal relationships, your community, or even your nation (or your nation’s army).
All of that can disappear, from today to tomorrow, or from this year to next year. It’s happened before, and it can happen again.
The only security you have? According to Dan, it’s only in your ‘ability to produce.’ In a few more of Dan’s words:
“… you had better sustain a very, very serious commitment to maintaining, improving, enhancing and strengthening your own ‘ability to produce’, because, in truth, it is all you’ve got and all you will ever have. Anything and everything else you see around you, you acquire and accumulate, you invest in, you trust in, can disappear in the blink of an eye.”
Another valuable idea I’ve learned, this from “Sovereign Man” Simon Black, is that of a Plan B. A Plan B is a plan that works in case things go bad… and that also works and brings in value even if things stay as they are.
Dan Kennedy’s idea of a very serious commitment to your “ability to produce” falls into this Plan B category.
I don’t know what you can produce.
I’ve personally decided to focus on producing effective communication — on putting together words that can motivate, influence, and guide others, and getting better at doing that, day after day.
I figure if nothing ever changes, and things stay exactly as they are, those will be very valuable skills to have.
On the other hand, if things change drastically tomorrow, those will still be valuable skills to have — and they may prove to be the only things that still have value.
If you’d like my help and guidance in developing your own ability to produce, starting today, so you can be prepared for tomorrow:
