Polymarket

Do you want a sexy newsletter-writing job?

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I have a friend named Will. Will and I were both in Dan Ferrari’s coaching group at the same time back in the late 19th century.

I talked to Will last week to catch up.

For the past couple years, Will has been doing all the email marketing for Polymarket, one of the two big prediction markets.

First he was doing a cool weekly email, which I even read, because it’s interesting.

Then they got him to start doing a daily email as well.

It’s a lot of writing and a lot of work.

Will is looking for help, for a writer to handle either the daily email, or segments of the weekly newsletter, or some combination of both.

I offered to put the word out to people in my audience in order to:

1. Help Will

2. Look cool to people in my audience

There’s a conflict between those two goals.

Will’s first question was, “Will I get inundated with replies?”

I told him that chances are yes. And I offered to act as an intermediary, to vet people before I pass them on to him.

If you are interested in writing for Polymarket:

1. Reply to this email

2. Tell me you specialize in writing Morning-Brew style newsletters

3. Include highly relevant samples to back up your claim in 2 above

I’ve already put this call out inside Daily Email House, my Skool group. I’ve had three people apply. Two frankly could not follow the instructions above. The third did, and I passed his info on to Will. But I’m guessing you still have a really good chance at this sexy job (at least sexy to me) if you really want it.

But what if you don’t have relevant samples? In that case, you have two options.

Option one is to not apply for this job. If you don’t send me highly relevant samples, I will not forward your stuff to Will, and I will not listen to you when you explain to me why I should hear you out.

Option two is to create highly relevant samples on the spot, maybe even a sample Polymarket email or two (their stuff is all online and you can find it and model it).

NB: If I have to parse, read into, or interpret your message or your samples to figure out how they could be relevant to this job… I will just skip your application. The whole point here is to figure out if you are the kind of person I should hand off to Will. A part of that is your writing experience and skill. Another part of that is your ability to make his job easier, rather than harder, and right now I’m the proxy for that.

What about salary? Terms? Stock?

I have no idea.

If that’s your first concern, I’d say, don’t apply for this.

But if you have relevant experience, or if you want experience writing for a big and exciting newsletter, then you know what to do.

Trump whale research intelligence

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This past November, right after Trump won the election, the WSJ ran a story about a “Trump whale” — a mysterious trader, known only as Theo, who had made a series of very large bets on the Polymarket prediction market.

Theo had bet $30 million of his own money that 1) Trump would win the election, that 2) he would win the popular vote, and that 3) he would sweep the “blue wall” of swing states.

Against the predictions of all pollsters, and against even the betting odds on Polymarket, all three things came to pass, and Theo collected $50 million as a payday.

The WSJ managed to get in contact with Theo. He explained some of his reasoning for why he was confident enough to put down $30 million of his own money on bets against what both experts and the wisdom of the crowd were saying.

That’s how I learned the following:

The normal way to poll people is to ask them, “Who you gonna vote for?” That produces certain results, which as this past election and previous elections have shown, can be significantly off from reality.

But a less normal way to poll people is to ask them, “Who your neighbor gonna vote for?” For whatever psychological reason, this tends to produce poll results that are significantly different than the normal way to poll.

Theo looked at a couple of these “neighbor” polls done in September alongside normal polls. The neighbor polls were all suggesting that support for Trump was several percentage points higher than everybody was saying.

This became one of the data points that gave this guy the confidence to make his ballsy bets, and the info to bet right and win $50 mil.

I’m telling you this for two reasons.

Reason one is if you’re trying to get info out of your readers, it might make sense not to ask them, “What do you want,” but to ask, “What do you think other people would want?” I tried it while initially working out the right pricing for Daily Email Habit, and it gave me useful info.

Reason two is simply that this neighbor polling thing is just another example of how much our own self-centered thinking tends to color how we see the world and how we behave.

I’m telling you this specifically in case you are ever plagued by thoughts like, “Nobody would want to read what I write,” or, “Nobody would want to pay money for this offer I have.”

The sticking point there is the old, I Me Mine.

If you find yourself ever thinking thoughts like — convincing yourself that you can predict what other people think, when it comes to what you are doing or could be doing — then take a lesson from the Trump whale:

The next time you are sure that you know what other people think, take yourself out of the equation. Ask yourself, “Would there be people who would want to read or buy this… if my neighbor were offering it?”

Do this, and you might win bigly.

And btw, today’s email was based on my daily puzzle that went out via Daily Email Habit. If you enjoyed today’s email, maybe you’d enjoy writing emails following daily email habit? Or maybe your neighbor would? Here’s more info in either case:

https://bejakovic.com/deh