Last week, I was talking to Steve “License to Quill” Raju. Steve’s a very smart guy who has over the past year transformed himself from a direct response copywriter into an AI consultant for big corporations.
Steve was telling me how he used AI to augment his problem-solving ability.
For example, the problem of direct response offers that fall flat.
Steve wanted to see if there’s a way to reduce the risk of offers falling flat. So he asked the AI if this problem has already been solved in other industries.
“The AI came up with the TV industry,” Steve told me with some enthusiasm, and he went on to explain how the TV industry apparently makes sure its shows are hits.
I didn’t say so at the time, but I had my doubts. Not of Steve, but of the AI’s advice.
From what I know, the TV industry is riddled with failure — pilot episodes that never get picked up, shows that get canceled after the first season, spinoffs that go nowhere.
Same thing holds in the movie industry. (William Goldman: “Nobody knows anything.”)
Ditto for the publishing industry. About that:
A couple days ago, I read a 4,425-word article that summarized a 1194-page book called The Trial.
The Trial itself summarizes a yearlong antitrust case that came up when Penguin Random House tried to buy Simon & Schuster, and reduce the Big Five publishing houses to the Big Four.
As part of this antitrust case, the heads of all the major publishing companies testified, and revealed the failure-ridden and frankly sad state of the traditional publishing industry.
For example, only half the books published by these companies make any money. A much lower percentage actually pay back the money advanced to the author, and make any kind of profit.
However!
There are two categories of books where the odds are much, much better.
These two categories do not quite guaranteed successes. Failures still do happen. But these two types of books are as close to guaranteed as it gets.
The first are books by celebrities. Michelle Obama, Bruce Springsteen, Bob Dylan.
The second are franchise authors. Tom Clancy, James Patterson, Brandon Sanderson.
Of these two categories, the franchise authors produce far more reliable successes. And no wonder.
Franchise authors have already built up an audience that’s demonstrated demand for a specific character or concept. This audience remains highly dedicated and forgiving, as long as the author keeps giving them more of what they already said they want.
When I put it in these terms, the lesson is hardly surprising.
But surprising or not, the fact remains that, in spite of literally hundreds of years of experimentation by established billion-dollar industries, this is still the best recipe for new offers that are an almost guaranteed success:
1. Build up an audience that’s demonstrated demand for a specific promise, product, or persona…
2. … and then give them more of what they already said they want.
Of course, you don’t have to write books. Short emails will do.
And if you want to see how I’ve done this using short emails, in several different industries, from supplements to pet supplies to high-ticket coaching and courses, take a look here: