“The framework I found, which made the decision incredibly easy, was what I called — what only a nerd would call — a ‘regret minimization’ framework. So I wanted to project myself forward to age 80. Now I’m looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have. I knew that when I was 80, I was not going to regret having tried this.”
— Jeff Bezos, speaking about his decision to start Amazon.com
One of the books that shaped my self-image the most is called Stumbling On Happiness.
I read it in my mid 20s. It made me trust myself even less than I had before then.
The book was written by Daniel Gilbert, a psychologist at Harvard. The gist of it, as I remember, is this:
1) Human beings are terrible at predicting the future. We can’t predict what will happen, and we can’t even predict how we will feel if certain things do happen.
2) Human beings are terrible at remembering the past. To protect our current identity, we will warp our memories, forget unflattering things, and even invent stuff that never happened.
In other words, the kind of “regret minimization” fluff that Jeff Bezos talks about might motivate you…
It might even help you make a decision…
But will it be a good decision?
Will your vague and ghost-like projection of your future, cranky, and forgetful self… trying to sift among his warped memories of decades earlier…
Will he tell you anything useful?
Not in my world.
That’s what I want to suggest to you, too. Look elsewhere for help with making decisions.
For example, look at the third leg of Daniel Gilbert’s book. It might help you if you are trying to make a big, hard decision.
Gilbert’s advice is to talk to people who are currently going through what you want to go through. Ask them the reality of their lives now. That’s the only hope you have of getting an honest answer… and minimizing all the motivational, inspirational, self-serving fluff.
Regarding fluff:
Project yourself into the future. No more than a day in the future.
Will your future self enjoy receiving an email from me?
Or will your future self regret not signing up for my daily email newsletter?
In case that exercise made your decision easy… and you want to see what my daily emails are like, click here to subscribe.