For the past few days, I’ve been staying in a horrific neighborhood at the edge of town. It’s a mess of oversized private houses, thoroughfares, cars, fast food restaurants, shopping malls, and construction.
Now I’m in Europe at the moment, so this is not identical to your typical American suburb.
But if you don’t like the suburbs where you live, and you either prefer the country or the urban center, then perhaps you will agree with me that the outskirts of town are the worst.
I bring this up because yesterday, I read an article with the title, The Growth Ponzi Scheme. It was written by a guy who is lobbying against suburbs and for something he calls “Strong Towns.”
I’m sure he’s got his own inner reasons why he doesn’t like the suburbs. But his argument in the article is that the suburbs are a typical Ponzi scheme.
They were created with the promise of economic growth.
But the cost of maintaining the suburb (roads, electrical grid, etc.) is much more than the taxes and economic growth that come out.
So the only way to maintain the illusion of growth is to dump still more money into building out the suburbs today, which will require still more money dumped in tomorrow.
In other words, it’s a typical Ponzi scheme. And all of us become suckers when this scam finally comes crashing down.
I found this argument exciting for my own personal reasons.
It felt right enough. Plus it’s such a simple and clear idea to hold in my head. And it’s new! I couldn’t wait to share it with you.
Perhaps you see where I’m going with this.
Calling the suburbs a Ponzi scheme is an analogy.
If people haven’t heard an analogy before… if the details fit well enough… and if the overall feel is right… then the result is what marketer Travis Sago calls a braingasm (a breakthrough analogy in its own right).
My point is that persuading by analogy is super powerful. And it doesn’t even have to be “true.”
Yeah, I’m sure the “Strong Towns” guy did his research. I’m sure he’s got numbers to back up his analogy.
Even so, he’s cherry picking just a few details of a very complex situation for his own purposes.
Somebody else, with a different agenda, might give a different analogy instead. He might say that suburbs are like the brick house built by the smartest of the three little pigs.
He might say it’s smart to invest in solid, spacious, and yet connected infrastructure, even if its value is not yet obvious.
But when the Big Bad Wolf of the next pandemic comes knocking at the door… we will see where our friends from Straw City and Backwoods Country come running to.
Whatever. I just made that up. Perhaps you found it convincing. Perhaps not.
No worries in that case. Because that’s my takeaway for you.
Persuading by analogy is like a slot machine. It’s cheap to play a game. In fact, you can mint your own coin with just a bit of thinking.
Of course, the odds of winning any given game are small. But if you keep at it long enough, you will win. And the payout can be huge. A jackpot.
Final point:
If you want to watch me play the analogy slot machine a few more times, you can do that here.