Betteridge’s Law

Will AI replace writing?

by

I saw a news headline this morning that read, “Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?”

I didn’t bother clicking on the link because I knew the answer. The answer is no.

As per Betteridge’s Law, whenever you see a headline that makes a claim and then hedges it with a question mark, the answer is no, because if there were conclusive evidence for a yes, the author would just say so.

My corollary to Betteridge’s Law is that if a headline hedges twice, by making a claim, then the opposite claim, and then a question mark, you know it’s such a murky area that it’s really not worth reading about.

This headline still did some good, because in my mind it tied into a podcast that I listened to recently. The podcast was an interview with an honest-to-goodness presidential speechwriter.

At the end of the interview, the speechwriter was asked about AI and how it’s going to affect his field. He replied:

“I think if you think of writing as a burden, then I get the desire for shortcuts. If you think of writing as an opportunity, as a valuable process that clarifies what you think, that helps you discover new connections, and connect different dots, and challenge your assumptions, and force you to be precise in how you articulate your ideas… why would you want to skip that step?”

Which brings me to my Daily Email Habit service. Daily Email Habit involves a daily prompt to write a daily email, like this one.

The underlying assumption for Daily Email Habit is that there is value in writing, which you cannot get by relying on templates, AI, or even a copywriter who will write in your stead.

So why a prompt?

A prompt reduces the infinite space of possible things to write about into something more manageable. It removes the stress of “What should I write about today?” It focuses the mind and acts as a creative constraint, which is useful even if you’re a creative person.

That’s why some of the testimonials I have on the Daily Email Habit sales page below come from:

– A published novelist and poet (hello James) who certainly has no trouble writing or coming up with ideas
– A game store owner (hello Neil) who hasn’t missed an email in over 730 days (and doesn’t want to, so he subscribes to Daily Email Habit as a kind of insurance)
– The head of partnerships at the Write with AI newsletter, which, ironically, teaches you how to write with AI (hello Zack)

If you’d like to find out exactly what Daily Email Habit looks like, and why the folks above subscribe to it, and if it might be right for you:

https://bejakovic.com/deh

Have we reached “peak storytelling”?

by

This week’s New Yorker features a cartoon of a puzzled couple in front of an apartment door.

​​The man is holding a bottle of wine, so the couple are probably guests coming for a party. But they are hesitating, because the welcome mat in front of the door doesn’t say “Welcome”. Instead, it says,

“Welcome?”

This cartoon connected in my mind to a “law” I found out about a few day’s ago, Betteridge’s law, which states:

“If a headline asks a yes or no question, the answer is always no.”

Ian Betteridge is a technology journalist. And his argument was, if the answer to that yes/no question were yes, the writer would definitely tell you so, right away, as a matter of shocking fact.

Instead, the writer didn’t have enough proof to support his claim. But he decided to make it anyhow, as a question, in order to say something more dramatic than he could otherwise, and to suck you into reading. Like this:

“Will AI and Transhumanism Lead to the Next Evolution of Mankind, or Doom It?”

No. And no.

Betteridge’s law is an instance of the persuasion knowledge model.

​​That’s a fancy, academic term for the fact that people become aware of manipulative advertising and media techniques. And after people become aware, they also start resisting — “Don’t even bother reading this article, because the answer is sure to be no.”

That’s how in time, people become dismissive of intriguing headlines (“clickbait”), of being told something new about themselves (r/StupidInternetQuizzes/), even of effective stories (the entire TV Tropes website).

That’s not to say that curiosity, categorization, or stories no longer work or will not work as ways to persuade or influence.

But it does say that the effort and skill required to make them work today is a bit greater than it was yesterday — and it will be a bit greater still tomorrow.

And so it is with what I’ve been calling the Most Valuable Email trick.

Like stories, categorization, or curiosity, my MVE trick is based on fundamental human psychology.

​​It will continue to work forever — just how a well-told or fascinating story continues to work today, in spite of the fact that you probably have 20 story-based daily emails sitting in your inbox right now.

The thing is, if you act today, you get bonus points for using the MVE trick.

​​The day may come when the persuasion knowledge of the market becomes aware of this trick, and maybe even takes evasive measures. But today, practically nobody is aware of the MVE trick, especially in emails. As copywriter Cindy Suzuki wrote me after going through the Most Valuable Email course:

I’m looking back at your old emails with new eyes. You know that moment people get epiphanies and the entire world looks different? I’m feeling that way about your writing now. You’ve helped me unlock something I didn’t know existed. So incredible.

In case you’d like to take advantage of this opportunity while it’s still early days:

https://bejakovic.com/mve