Almost exactly a year ago, I wrote an email for my email newsletter where I predicted that Trump would lose the election. My arguments were based on three persuasion “first principles”:
1. People vote against the other guy rather than for their guy
2. The only thing that disqualifies you from becoming president are looking annoying or having a fucked up name
3. People care more about getting out of hell than about getting into (or staying in) heaven
I remembered my prediction today because I read an article about a guy named Gerd Gigerenzer. Gigerenzer is a psychologist and he studies how simple rules of thumb often outperform complex data-driven predictions. There’s apparently a lot of interest in Gigerenzer’s work in the world of healthcare and finance and I suppose political modeling.
Makes sense to me. After all, I’m 1-for-1 with my political predictions based on simple rules of thumb.
Which got me thinking…
Perhaps you should write down a list of rules of thumb you yourself find useful. In your personal life… in your business life… for managing your own bad self. Perhaps force yourself to explicitly state how you make choices and predictions… because you might be able to rely on those same rules of thumb in other situations, too.
Perhaps I should do the same. In fact, I started writing down exactly such a list today. But then I remebered something else. Last summer, I had actually created this very thing.
Back then I called it, “My 10 direct response fundamentals that work almost any time.” You can find them at the link below.
There’s nothing very shocking here. But perhaps these rules can help you make a better marketing decision next time… or avoid a stupid mistake that you will hate yourself for. Here’s the link:
https://bejakovic.com/second-hand-news-my-10-direct-response-fundamentals-that-work-almost-any-time/